A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
